{
 "break_matrix": {
  "baseline_rule": "median of first 30 points, frozen",
  "n_points": 90,
  "n_seeds": 40,
  "onset": 60,
  "seed_base": 20000,
  "study": "break_matrix",
  "textures": [
   {
    "label": "wander + heavy-tail spikes",
    "shapes": [
     {
      "label": "slow drift (+0.5σ₀/8 pts)",
      "page_tier_catch": 3,
      "per_detector": {
       "coverage-e-process": {
        "catch": 0,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": null,
        "miss": 40
       },
       "cusum": {
        "catch": 39,
        "false_pre_onset": 70,
        "median_lag": 6.0,
        "miss": 1
       },
       "e-detector": {
        "catch": 3,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 27.0,
        "miss": 37
       },
       "ewma": {
        "catch": 33,
        "false_pre_onset": 60,
        "median_lag": 12.0,
        "miss": 7
       },
       "rolling-band": {
        "catch": 27,
        "false_pre_onset": 22,
        "median_lag": 13.0,
        "miss": 13
       },
       "static-threshold": {
        "catch": 32,
        "false_pre_onset": 30,
        "median_lag": 13.0,
        "miss": 8
       }
      },
      "shape": "drift-slow",
      "suite_catch": 39,
      "warn_confirm_lead_median": 20.0,
      "warn_confirmed_count": 3
     },
     {
      "label": "steady drift (+1.0/pt)",
      "page_tier_catch": 21,
      "per_detector": {
       "coverage-e-process": {
        "catch": 3,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 30.0,
        "miss": 37
       },
       "cusum": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 70,
        "median_lag": 6.5,
        "miss": 0
       },
       "e-detector": {
        "catch": 21,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 27.0,
        "miss": 19
       },
       "ewma": {
        "catch": 35,
        "false_pre_onset": 60,
        "median_lag": 11.0,
        "miss": 5
       },
       "rolling-band": {
        "catch": 31,
        "false_pre_onset": 22,
        "median_lag": 10.0,
        "miss": 9
       },
       "static-threshold": {
        "catch": 38,
        "false_pre_onset": 30,
        "median_lag": 13.0,
        "miss": 2
       }
      },
      "shape": "drift-mid",
      "suite_catch": 40,
      "warn_confirm_lead_median": 17.0,
      "warn_confirmed_count": 21
     },
     {
      "label": "fast drift (+1.6/pt)",
      "page_tier_catch": 39,
      "per_detector": {
       "coverage-e-process": {
        "catch": 10,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 26.0,
        "miss": 30
       },
       "cusum": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 70,
        "median_lag": 8.0,
        "miss": 0
       },
       "e-detector": {
        "catch": 39,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 24.0,
        "miss": 1
       },
       "ewma": {
        "catch": 35,
        "false_pre_onset": 60,
        "median_lag": 9.0,
        "miss": 5
       },
       "rolling-band": {
        "catch": 35,
        "false_pre_onset": 22,
        "median_lag": 9.0,
        "miss": 5
       },
       "static-threshold": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 30,
        "median_lag": 9.0,
        "miss": 0
       }
      },
      "shape": "drift-fast",
      "suite_catch": 40,
      "warn_confirm_lead_median": 15.0,
      "warn_confirmed_count": 39
     },
     {
      "label": "step +10 then creep +1.2/pt",
      "page_tier_catch": 40,
      "per_detector": {
       "coverage-e-process": {
        "catch": 18,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 27.5,
        "miss": 22
       },
       "cusum": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 70,
        "median_lag": 5.0,
        "miss": 0
       },
       "e-detector": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 20.0,
        "miss": 0
       },
       "ewma": {
        "catch": 35,
        "false_pre_onset": 60,
        "median_lag": 6.0,
        "miss": 5
       },
       "rolling-band": {
        "catch": 32,
        "false_pre_onset": 22,
        "median_lag": 6.0,
        "miss": 8
       },
       "static-threshold": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 30,
        "median_lag": 7.0,
        "miss": 0
       }
      },
      "shape": "step-creep",
      "suite_catch": 40,
      "warn_confirm_lead_median": 14.0,
      "warn_confirmed_count": 40
     },
     {
      "label": "pure step +20 (≈3σ of texture)",
      "page_tier_catch": 19,
      "per_detector": {
       "coverage-e-process": {
        "catch": 2,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 25.0,
        "miss": 38
       },
       "cusum": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 70,
        "median_lag": 3.0,
        "miss": 0
       },
       "e-detector": {
        "catch": 19,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 19.0,
        "miss": 21
       },
       "ewma": {
        "catch": 35,
        "false_pre_onset": 60,
        "median_lag": 3.0,
        "miss": 5
       },
       "rolling-band": {
        "catch": 29,
        "false_pre_onset": 22,
        "median_lag": 1.0,
        "miss": 11
       },
       "static-threshold": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 30,
        "median_lag": 3.5,
        "miss": 0
       }
      },
      "shape": "step-large",
      "suite_catch": 40,
      "warn_confirm_lead_median": 13.0,
      "warn_confirmed_count": 19
     },
     {
      "label": "pure step +12 (≈2σ of texture)",
      "page_tier_catch": 5,
      "per_detector": {
       "coverage-e-process": {
        "catch": 0,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": null,
        "miss": 40
       },
       "cusum": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 70,
        "median_lag": 5.5,
        "miss": 0
       },
       "e-detector": {
        "catch": 5,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 15.0,
        "miss": 35
       },
       "ewma": {
        "catch": 35,
        "false_pre_onset": 60,
        "median_lag": 7.0,
        "miss": 5
       },
       "rolling-band": {
        "catch": 20,
        "false_pre_onset": 22,
        "median_lag": 5.0,
        "miss": 20
       },
       "static-threshold": {
        "catch": 34,
        "false_pre_onset": 30,
        "median_lag": 5.5,
        "miss": 6
       }
      },
      "shape": "step-small",
      "suite_catch": 40,
      "warn_confirm_lead_median": 13.0,
      "warn_confirmed_count": 5
     }
    ],
    "texture": "wander-spikes"
   },
   {
    "label": "smooth near-pink",
    "shapes": [
     {
      "label": "slow drift (+0.5σ₀/8 pts)",
      "page_tier_catch": 12,
      "per_detector": {
       "coverage-e-process": {
        "catch": 3,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 27.0,
        "miss": 37
       },
       "cusum": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 92,
        "median_lag": 5.5,
        "miss": 0
       },
       "e-detector": {
        "catch": 12,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 23.5,
        "miss": 28
       },
       "ewma": {
        "catch": 36,
        "false_pre_onset": 47,
        "median_lag": 11.5,
        "miss": 4
       },
       "rolling-band": {
        "catch": 33,
        "false_pre_onset": 25,
        "median_lag": 13.0,
        "miss": 7
       },
       "static-threshold": {
        "catch": 36,
        "false_pre_onset": 48,
        "median_lag": 10.0,
        "miss": 4
       }
      },
      "shape": "drift-slow",
      "suite_catch": 40,
      "warn_confirm_lead_median": 19.5,
      "warn_confirmed_count": 12
     },
     {
      "label": "steady drift (+1.0/pt)",
      "page_tier_catch": 34,
      "per_detector": {
       "coverage-e-process": {
        "catch": 12,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 26.5,
        "miss": 28
       },
       "cusum": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 92,
        "median_lag": 6.0,
        "miss": 0
       },
       "e-detector": {
        "catch": 34,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 23.5,
        "miss": 6
       },
       "ewma": {
        "catch": 37,
        "false_pre_onset": 47,
        "median_lag": 9.0,
        "miss": 3
       },
       "rolling-band": {
        "catch": 32,
        "false_pre_onset": 25,
        "median_lag": 9.5,
        "miss": 8
       },
       "static-threshold": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 48,
        "median_lag": 9.0,
        "miss": 0
       }
      },
      "shape": "drift-mid",
      "suite_catch": 40,
      "warn_confirm_lead_median": 15.0,
      "warn_confirmed_count": 34
     },
     {
      "label": "fast drift (+1.6/pt)",
      "page_tier_catch": 40,
      "per_detector": {
       "coverage-e-process": {
        "catch": 24,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 27.0,
        "miss": 16
       },
       "cusum": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 92,
        "median_lag": 5.0,
        "miss": 0
       },
       "e-detector": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 19.5,
        "miss": 0
       },
       "ewma": {
        "catch": 36,
        "false_pre_onset": 47,
        "median_lag": 7.0,
        "miss": 4
       },
       "rolling-band": {
        "catch": 37,
        "false_pre_onset": 25,
        "median_lag": 9.0,
        "miss": 3
       },
       "static-threshold": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 48,
        "median_lag": 8.0,
        "miss": 0
       }
      },
      "shape": "drift-fast",
      "suite_catch": 40,
      "warn_confirm_lead_median": 13.0,
      "warn_confirmed_count": 40
     },
     {
      "label": "step +10 then creep +1.2/pt",
      "page_tier_catch": 40,
      "per_detector": {
       "coverage-e-process": {
        "catch": 36,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 25.0,
        "miss": 4
       },
       "cusum": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 92,
        "median_lag": 3.5,
        "miss": 0
       },
       "e-detector": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 15.0,
        "miss": 0
       },
       "ewma": {
        "catch": 36,
        "false_pre_onset": 47,
        "median_lag": 3.5,
        "miss": 4
       },
       "rolling-band": {
        "catch": 32,
        "false_pre_onset": 25,
        "median_lag": 3.0,
        "miss": 8
       },
       "static-threshold": {
        "catch": 39,
        "false_pre_onset": 48,
        "median_lag": 4.0,
        "miss": 1
       }
      },
      "shape": "step-creep",
      "suite_catch": 40,
      "warn_confirm_lead_median": 12.0,
      "warn_confirmed_count": 40
     },
     {
      "label": "pure step +20 (≈3σ of texture)",
      "page_tier_catch": 23,
      "per_detector": {
       "coverage-e-process": {
        "catch": 3,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 20.0,
        "miss": 37
       },
       "cusum": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 92,
        "median_lag": 2.0,
        "miss": 0
       },
       "e-detector": {
        "catch": 23,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 16.0,
        "miss": 17
       },
       "ewma": {
        "catch": 36,
        "false_pre_onset": 47,
        "median_lag": 2.0,
        "miss": 4
       },
       "rolling-band": {
        "catch": 37,
        "false_pre_onset": 25,
        "median_lag": 1.0,
        "miss": 3
       },
       "static-threshold": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 48,
        "median_lag": 1.0,
        "miss": 0
       }
      },
      "shape": "step-large",
      "suite_catch": 40,
      "warn_confirm_lead_median": 14.0,
      "warn_confirmed_count": 23
     },
     {
      "label": "pure step +12 (≈2σ of texture)",
      "page_tier_catch": 12,
      "per_detector": {
       "coverage-e-process": {
        "catch": 1,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 15.0,
        "miss": 39
       },
       "cusum": {
        "catch": 40,
        "false_pre_onset": 92,
        "median_lag": 3.0,
        "miss": 0
       },
       "e-detector": {
        "catch": 12,
        "false_pre_onset": 0,
        "median_lag": 15.5,
        "miss": 28
       },
       "ewma": {
        "catch": 36,
        "false_pre_onset": 47,
        "median_lag": 3.5,
        "miss": 4
       },
       "rolling-band": {
        "catch": 27,
        "false_pre_onset": 25,
        "median_lag": 1.0,
        "miss": 13
       },
       "static-threshold": {
        "catch": 38,
        "false_pre_onset": 48,
        "median_lag": 5.0,
        "miss": 2
       }
      },
      "shape": "step-small",
      "suite_catch": 40,
      "warn_confirm_lead_median": 14.0,
      "warn_confirmed_count": 12
     }
    ],
    "texture": "smooth-drifty"
   }
  ]
 },
 "calibration": {
  "n_points": 2000,
  "n_streams": 100,
  "promises": {
   "coverage-e-process": "false page probability ≤ 0.01 per stream, anytime-valid",
   "cusum": "ARL 2000 between false events, priced under iid Gaussian",
   "e-detector": "ARL ≥ 2000 between false events, distribution-free on the conformal miss stream"
  },
  "seed_base_iid": 60000,
  "seed_base_textured": 70000,
  "study": "calibration",
  "worlds": [
   {
    "coverage_streams_fired": 0,
    "detect_points": 197000,
    "events": {
     "coverage-e-process": 0,
     "cusum": 1040,
     "e-detector": 0,
     "ewma": 1665,
     "rolling-band": 1408,
     "static-threshold": 1332
    },
    "label": "iid Gaussian (textbook on-model)",
    "observed_arl": {
     "cusum": 189.42307692307693,
     "e-detector": null,
     "ewma": 118.31831831831832,
     "rolling-band": 139.91477272727272,
     "static-threshold": 147.8978978978979
    },
    "streams_with_events": {
     "coverage-e-process": 0,
     "cusum": 90,
     "e-detector": 0,
     "ewma": 95,
     "rolling-band": 100,
     "static-threshold": 95
    },
    "texture": "iid-gauss"
   },
   {
    "coverage_streams_fired": 0,
    "detect_points": 197000,
    "events": {
     "coverage-e-process": 0,
     "cusum": 15089,
     "e-detector": 297,
     "ewma": 7579,
     "rolling-band": 3800,
     "static-threshold": 7342
    },
    "label": "wander + heavy-tail spikes",
    "observed_arl": {
     "cusum": 13.055868513486645,
     "e-detector": 663.2996632996633,
     "ewma": 25.992875049478823,
     "rolling-band": 51.8421052631579,
     "static-threshold": 26.831925905747752
    },
    "streams_with_events": {
     "coverage-e-process": 0,
     "cusum": 99,
     "e-detector": 52,
     "ewma": 99,
     "rolling-band": 100,
     "static-threshold": 99
    },
    "texture": "wander-spikes"
   }
  ]
 },
 "evidence_curve": {
  "baseline_mu": 179.99402815556078,
  "baseline_rule": "median of first 30 points, frozen",
  "cusum": {
   "fires": [
    70,
    73,
    75,
    77,
    80,
    83,
    85,
    87,
    89
   ],
   "h": 5.749639511108398,
   "statistic": [
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.0,
    0.26291507482528687,
    0.0702202320098877,
    0.0,
    0.8245023488998413,
    2.055361270904541,
    1.571427583694458,
    1.3811980485916138,
    1.1447498798370361,
    0.39232516288757324,
    1.2990622520446777,
    0.7105281352996826,
    0.4608379006385803,
    2.116610288619995,
    2.3784921169281006,
    1.7718212604522705,
    1.788132667541504,
    1.521644115447998,
    1.3645377159118652,
    0.6280990839004517,
    0.9974378347396851,
    1.4339370727539062,
    1.5898516178131104,
    1.1394524574279785,
    1.6140847206115723,
    1.2765759229660034,
    0.391560435295105,
    0.21115177869796753,
    1.2732956409454346,
    1.4655460119247437,
    1.1304832696914673,
    1.457761287689209,
    1.1279679536819458,
    0.22036337852478027,
    1.075238823890686,
    2.054630756378174,
    3.145228385925293,
    5.091165542602539,
    6.9274444580078125,
    1.73411226272583,
    3.7838568687438965,
    7.4380316734313965,
    2.651947259902954,
    6.021673679351807,
    1.781714916229248,
    6.5977911949157715,
    2.0524888038635254,
    4.811578750610352,
    8.360902786254883,
    1.6921827793121338,
    4.259588241577148,
    6.970948219299316,
    2.172856569290161,
    6.342851638793945,
    3.1413674354553223,
    7.6678619384765625,
    4.564282417297363,
    9.554597854614258,
    4.712523460388184
   ]
  },
  "e_detector": {
   "fires": [
    87
   ],
   "log_statistic": [
    -0.09828679263591766,
    0.583139181137085,
    0.9712690114974976,
    1.2393211126327515,
    1.4417067766189575,
    1.6026694774627686,
    1.735136866569519,
    1.8468209505081177,
    1.942692756652832,
    2.026144027709961,
    2.0995922088623047,
    2.487769365310669,
    2.5150206089019775,
    2.5405614376068115,
    2.564499855041504,
    2.586942434310913,
    2.6079916954040527,
    2.627744674682617,
    2.646291971206665,
    2.663717746734619,
    2.6800999641418457,
    2.6955106258392334,
    2.7100160121917725,
    2.723677158355713,
    3.0665812492370605,
    3.060323476791382,
    3.0544745922088623,
    3.0490047931671143,
    3.0438859462738037,
    3.039093494415283,
    3.034604787826538,
    3.0303988456726074,
    3.026456594467163,
    3.0227606296539307,
    3.0192947387695312,
    3.0160439014434814,
    3.3459482192993164,
    3.328930139541626,
    3.3125789165496826,
    3.296874523162842,
    3.2817976474761963,
    3.2673287391662598,
    3.2534492015838623,
    3.240139961242676,
    3.5642805099487305,
    3.540355920791626,
    3.5171756744384766,
    3.4947292804718018,
    3.473005533218384,
    3.451993227005005,
    3.43168044090271,
    3.4120547771453857,
    3.393103837966919,
    3.374814510345459,
    3.357173442840576,
    3.3401670455932617,
    3.3237810134887695,
    3.3080012798309326,
    3.292813301086426,
    3.278202772140503,
    3.2641544342041016,
    3.2506535053253174,
    3.237685203552246,
    3.225234270095825,
    3.213285446166992,
    3.5350148677825928,
    3.5124547481536865,
    3.8286757469177246,
    4.141709804534912,
    4.45350456237793,
    4.763932704925537,
    5.070005416870117,
    5.3711419105529785,
    5.667222499847412,
    5.958339214324951,
    5.917768478393555,
    6.203278541564941,
    6.484193801879883,
    6.760756015777588,
    7.033201217651367,
    6.9947991371154785,
    6.956661224365234,
    6.918780326843262,
    6.881150245666504,
    7.146176815032959,
    7.4074625968933105,
    7.665213108062744,
    7.919617652893066,
    8.170849800109863,
    8.41907024383545
   ],
   "threshold": 7.600902557373047
  },
  "n_points": 90,
  "note": "One break-matrix cell, synthetic and labeled as such; curves are the engine's own per-step statistics from the same replay that produced the break-matrix numbers.",
  "onset": 60,
  "seed": 20000,
  "seed_index": 0,
  "shape": "drift-mid",
  "shape_label": "steady drift (+1.0/pt)",
  "study": "evidence_curve",
  "texture": "wander-spikes",
  "texture_label": "wander + heavy-tail spikes",
  "y": [
   180.2978057861328,
   182.6448211669922,
   185.72149658203125,
   190.24635314941406,
   184.1134033203125,
   178.9396209716797,
   180.20663452148438,
   174.62152099609375,
   182.29769897460938,
   177.3411407470703,
   176.64398193359375,
   169.28598022460938,
   173.086181640625,
   172.76998901367188,
   173.34808349609375,
   177.2171173095703,
   183.3931427001953,
   180.74169921875,
   179.7814178466797,
   174.97373962402344,
   177.4996795654297,
   186.4506378173828,
   177.90882873535156,
   185.77499389648438,
   201.26873779296875,
   189.3438262939453,
   181.84893798828125,
   188.6027374267578,
   179.2932586669922,
   177.72349548339844,
   179.10655212402344,
   183.50904846191406,
   185.6243133544922,
   182.73104858398438,
   178.96275329589844,
   189.19056701660156,
   191.77105712890625,
   180.881591796875,
   182.7467041015625,
   182.4532012939453,
   179.1765899658203,
   189.71278381347656,
   180.21734619140625,
   182.36911010742188,
   194.46939086914062,
   185.6177520751953,
   180.1021728515625,
   184.0583038330078,
   182.26243591308594,
   182.95704650878906,
   179.27810668945312,
   171.27037048339844,
   174.83250427246094,
   176.6143035888672,
   180.46458435058594,
   174.59034729003906,
   179.74769592285156,
   183.2245330810547,
   178.75006103515625,
   170.85946655273438,
   176.38356018066406,
   179.73216247558594,
   175.52609252929688,
   179.69869995117188,
   183.36798095703125,
   190.78282165527344,
   190.17416381835938,
   190.88035583496094,
   196.31202697753906,
   195.61566162109375,
   194.9668731689453,
   196.9712371826172,
   207.1598663330078,
   200.79541015625,
   205.35353088378906,
   195.2691650390625,
   214.53829956054688,
   196.98866271972656,
   201.47579956054688,
   206.49403381347656,
   194.7006072998047,
   200.258544921875,
   201.17269897460938,
   197.75303649902344,
   210.43548583984375,
   203.90338134765625,
   212.69937133789062,
   212.9393310546875,
   215.644775390625,
   213.88070678710938
  ]
 },
 "healthy_fleet": {
  "baseline_rule": "median of first 30 points, frozen",
  "n_points": 90,
  "n_streams": 200,
  "page_budget": {
   "coverage_delta_per_stream": 0.01,
   "coverage_expected_streams_bound": 2.0,
   "e_detector_expected_events": 9.0
  },
  "seed_base": 10000,
  "study": "healthy_fleet",
  "textures": [
   {
    "desc": "AR(1) wander (ρ = 0.9, σ ≈ 6) plus iid Gaussian noise — gently non-iid",
    "label": "Gaussian wander",
    "page_tier_streams_with_pages": 9,
    "per_detector": {
     "coverage-e-process": {
      "streams_with_events": 1,
      "total_events": 1
     },
     "cusum": {
      "streams_with_events": 190,
      "total_events": 1101
     },
     "e-detector": {
      "streams_with_events": 9,
      "total_events": 11
     },
     "ewma": {
      "streams_with_events": 192,
      "total_events": 442
     },
     "rolling-band": {
      "streams_with_events": 112,
      "total_events": 149
     },
     "static-threshold": {
      "streams_with_events": 129,
      "total_events": 417
     }
    },
    "texture": "gauss-wander"
   },
   {
    "desc": "AR(1) wander (ρ = 0.9) plus t(3) spikes — realistic latency-like texture",
    "label": "wander + heavy-tail spikes",
    "page_tier_streams_with_pages": 1,
    "per_detector": {
     "coverage-e-process": {
      "streams_with_events": 0,
      "total_events": 0
     },
     "cusum": {
      "streams_with_events": 177,
      "total_events": 756
     },
     "e-detector": {
      "streams_with_events": 1,
      "total_events": 2
     },
     "ewma": {
      "streams_with_events": 180,
      "total_events": 465
     },
     "rolling-band": {
      "streams_with_events": 167,
      "total_events": 248
     },
     "static-threshold": {
      "streams_with_events": 144,
      "total_events": 396
     }
    },
    "texture": "wander-spikes"
   },
   {
    "desc": "slow AR(1) wander (ρ = 0.97) with long excursions plus t(3) spikes",
    "label": "smooth near-pink",
    "page_tier_streams_with_pages": 17,
    "per_detector": {
     "coverage-e-process": {
      "streams_with_events": 2,
      "total_events": 2
     },
     "cusum": {
      "streams_with_events": 188,
      "total_events": 1221
     },
     "e-detector": {
      "streams_with_events": 17,
      "total_events": 19
     },
     "ewma": {
      "streams_with_events": 188,
      "total_events": 461
     },
     "rolling-band": {
      "streams_with_events": 168,
      "total_events": 274
     },
     "static-threshold": {
      "streams_with_events": 158,
      "total_events": 532
     }
    },
    "texture": "smooth-drifty"
   }
  ],
  "total_points_per_texture": 18000
 },
 "index": {
  "baseline_rule": "median of first 30 points, frozen",
  "data_note": "All series are synthetic and labeled as such; every number is computed by replaying them through the production engine and the product's warning-tier control charts at their shipped defaults.",
  "detectors": [
   {
    "guarantee_tag": "average_run_length_e_detector",
    "id": "e-detector",
    "label": "e-detector (Shiryaev–Roberts, ARL 2000)",
    "params": "SR e-detector on conformal misses, ARL target 2000, null mean 0.1",
    "tier": "page"
   },
   {
    "guarantee_tag": "anytime_valid_under_conditional_mean_null",
    "id": "coverage-e-process",
    "label": "coverage e-process (δ = 0.01)",
    "params": "anytime-valid coverage e-process, miss target 0.1, false-alarm budget δ = 0.01 per stream",
    "tier": "page"
   },
   {
    "guarantee_tag": "heuristic_adaptive",
    "id": "cusum",
    "label": "CUSUM (k = 0.5, ARL 2000)",
    "params": "two-sided CUSUM on standardized residuals, k = 0.5, h solved for iid-Gaussian ARL 2000, train 30",
    "tier": "warn"
   },
   {
    "guarantee_tag": "heuristic_adaptive",
    "id": "ewma",
    "label": "EWMA chart (λ = 0.2, 3σ)",
    "params": "EWMA λ = 0.2 with exact time-varying 3σ limits, train 30",
    "tier": "warn"
   },
   {
    "guarantee_tag": "heuristic_adaptive",
    "id": "static-threshold",
    "label": "Static threshold (mean ± 3σ)",
    "params": "mean ± 3σ frozen from the first 30 points, upcrossing events",
    "tier": "warn"
   },
   {
    "guarantee_tag": "heuristic_adaptive",
    "id": "rolling-band",
    "label": "Rolling band (trailing-30, ± 3σ)",
    "params": "trailing-30 mean ± 3σ re-fit every point, upcrossing events",
    "tier": "warn"
   }
  ],
  "engine_config": {
   "calibrator": [
    "split_window",
    {
     "alpha": 0.1,
     "capacity": 64
    }
   ],
   "monitors": [
    [
     "e_detector",
     {
      "arl_target": 2000.0,
      "input_field": "miss",
      "null_mean": 0.1
     }
    ],
    [
     "coverage_e_process",
     {
      "alpha": 0.1,
      "delta": 0.01
     }
    ],
    [
     "cusum",
     {
      "arl_target": 2000.0,
      "k": 0.5,
      "train": 30,
      "two_sided": true
     }
    ],
    [
     "ewma_chart",
     {
      "L": 3.0,
      "lam": 0.2,
      "side": "both",
      "train": 30
     }
    ],
    [
     "static_threshold",
     {
      "k": 3.0,
      "side": "both",
      "train": 30
     }
    ],
    [
     "rolling_band",
     {
      "k": 3.0,
      "side": "both",
      "window": 30
     }
    ]
   ],
   "predictor": "record",
   "score": "absolute",
   "sets": "interval"
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-07-04",
  "regen_command": "cd backend && uv run python scripts/bench/run_bench.py",
  "schema_version": 1,
  "studies": [
   "break_matrix.json",
   "calibration.json",
   "evidence_curve.json",
   "healthy_fleet.json",
   "leaderboard.json"
  ]
 },
 "leaderboard": {
  "healthy_points": 18000,
  "healthy_streams": 200,
  "rows": [
   {
    "catch": 127,
    "catch_of": 240,
    "guarantee_tag": "average_run_length_e_detector",
    "healthy_false_events": 2,
    "healthy_streams_hit": 1,
    "id": "e-detector",
    "label": "e-detector (Shiryaev–Roberts, ARL 2000)",
    "median_lag_overall": 22.0,
    "params": "SR e-detector on conformal misses, ARL target 2000, null mean 0.1",
    "step_catch": 24,
    "step_catch_of": 80,
    "tier": "page"
   },
   {
    "catch": 33,
    "catch_of": 240,
    "guarantee_tag": "anytime_valid_under_conditional_mean_null",
    "healthy_false_events": 0,
    "healthy_streams_hit": 0,
    "id": "coverage-e-process",
    "label": "coverage e-process (δ = 0.01)",
    "median_lag_overall": 26.75,
    "params": "anytime-valid coverage e-process, miss target 0.1, false-alarm budget δ = 0.01 per stream",
    "step_catch": 2,
    "step_catch_of": 80,
    "tier": "page"
   },
   {
    "catch": 239,
    "catch_of": 240,
    "guarantee_tag": "heuristic_adaptive",
    "healthy_false_events": 756,
    "healthy_streams_hit": 177,
    "id": "cusum",
    "label": "CUSUM (k = 0.5, ARL 2000)",
    "median_lag_overall": 5.75,
    "params": "two-sided CUSUM on standardized residuals, k = 0.5, h solved for iid-Gaussian ARL 2000, train 30",
    "step_catch": 80,
    "step_catch_of": 80,
    "tier": "warn"
   },
   {
    "catch": 208,
    "catch_of": 240,
    "guarantee_tag": "heuristic_adaptive",
    "healthy_false_events": 465,
    "healthy_streams_hit": 180,
    "id": "ewma",
    "label": "EWMA chart (λ = 0.2, 3σ)",
    "median_lag_overall": 8.0,
    "params": "EWMA λ = 0.2 with exact time-varying 3σ limits, train 30",
    "step_catch": 70,
    "step_catch_of": 80,
    "tier": "warn"
   },
   {
    "catch": 224,
    "catch_of": 240,
    "guarantee_tag": "heuristic_adaptive",
    "healthy_false_events": 396,
    "healthy_streams_hit": 144,
    "id": "static-threshold",
    "label": "Static threshold (mean ± 3σ)",
    "median_lag_overall": 8.0,
    "params": "mean ± 3σ frozen from the first 30 points, upcrossing events",
    "step_catch": 74,
    "step_catch_of": 80,
    "tier": "warn"
   },
   {
    "catch": 174,
    "catch_of": 240,
    "guarantee_tag": "heuristic_adaptive",
    "healthy_false_events": 248,
    "healthy_streams_hit": 167,
    "id": "rolling-band",
    "label": "Rolling band (trailing-30, ± 3σ)",
    "median_lag_overall": 7.5,
    "params": "trailing-30 mean ± 3σ re-fit every point, upcrossing events",
    "step_catch": 49,
    "step_catch_of": 80,
    "tier": "warn"
   }
  ],
  "study": "leaderboard",
  "suite": {
   "catch": 239,
   "catch_of": 240,
   "healthy_false_pages": 2,
   "note": "suite = budgeted page tier OR the CUSUM warning tier; only the page tier carries the false-alarm budget"
  },
  "texture": "wander-spikes"
 }
}