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Field notes

On trustworthy alarms, the peeking problem, and catching regressions before your customers do.

  • Benchmark7 min read

    Benchmarking drift detectors, honestly

    We replayed every detector we ship against labeled synthetic fleets: where CUSUM genuinely wins, where it cries wolf 756 times, and what the budgeted tier trades for its guarantee.

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  • Calibration6 min read

    CUSUM's false-alarm promise, measured

    A CUSUM tuned for one false alarm per 2,000 points delivered one per 189 on textbook data and one per 13 on realistic texture. The ~154× gap decomposes cleanly — none of it is exotic.

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  • The peeking problem6 min read

    Your monitoring dashboard is lying to you

    Every fixed-threshold dashboard false-alarms by design — watch a metric long enough and it will trip. Here's why, and the fix that lets you check as often as you want.

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ValidAnytime

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Made by Compiled Intelligence — a frontier AI lab working on quantitative finance from first principles; ValidAnytime is the monitoring we built for our own model fleets, productized.

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