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ValidAnytime

A guaranteed false-alarm budget across your whole fleet, valid no matter how often you look.

Made by Compiled Intelligence — a frontier AI lab working on quantitative finance from first principles; ValidAnytime is the monitoring we built for our own model fleets, productized.

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© 2026 ValidAnytime. All rights reserved.

Every alarm ships with its guarantee_tag and theorem_ref.

Observatory

The incident ledger

Every dated forecast-error regime change the engine has written across 14 US grids since 2021 — 107 pages in all, permanent and budgeted. Each is an anytime-valid alarm, not a vibe: the operator’s own day-ahead forecast entered a new error regime. We never claim the grid failed, or why.

By documented event

Pages whose window overlaps a named grid-stress event — the recognizable, externally verifiable stories.

Late-June 2026 heat wave

  • Jul 3, 2026Southern Company (Southeast)Late-June 2026 heat wavepeak 9.4/9.1 · −6,896 MW

January–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)

  • Feb 1, 2026Southern Company (Southeast)January–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)peak 10.3/9.1 · −4,248 MW
  • Jan 30, 2026Southern Company (Southeast)January–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)peak 9.2/9.1 · −3,396 MW
  • Jan 27, 2026Texas (ERCOT)January–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)peak 9.9/9.1 · −9,995 MW
  • Jan 26, 2026Tennessee Valley AuthorityJanuary–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)peak 9.3/9.1 · −2,837 MW
  • Jan 26, 2026Southwest Power PoolJanuary–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)peak 10.2/9.1 · −11,290 MW
  • Jan 26, 2026Southwest Power PoolJanuary–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)peak 10.5/9.1 · −11,143 MW
  • Jan 26, 2026Tennessee Valley AuthorityJanuary–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)peak 10.1/9.1 · −4,468 MW
  • Jan 25, 2026Duke Energy (Carolinas)January–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)peak 10.1/9.1 · +4,492 MW
  • Jan 24, 2026Duke Energy (Carolinas)January–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)peak 11.5/9.1 · +5,188 MW

January 2025 cold wave

  • Jan 23, 2025MISO (Midwest)January 2025 cold wavepeak 9.7/9.1 · −4,490 MW
  • Jan 22, 2025Los Angeles (LADWP)January 2025 cold wavepeak 9.4/9.1 · −1,407 MW
  • Jan 21, 2025Texas (ERCOT)January 2025 cold wavepeak 10.6/9.1 · −7,285 MW
  • Jan 21, 2025MISO (Midwest)January 2025 cold wavepeak 9.5/9.1 · +4,961 MW

January 2024 Arctic outbreak

  • Jan 17, 2024PacifiCorp East (Utah/Wyoming)January 2024 Arctic outbreakpeak 9.6/9.1 · −800 MW
  • Jan 14, 2024United States (Lower 48)January 2024 Arctic outbreakpeak 10.3/9.1 · +21,962 MW
  • Jan 14, 2024Southwest Power PoolJanuary 2024 Arctic outbreakpeak 10.1/9.1 · +5,361 MW
  • Jan 13, 2024Southwest Power PoolJanuary 2024 Arctic outbreakpeak 15.2/9.1 · +2,693 MW

December 2022 cold (Winter Storm Elliott)

  • Dec 26, 2022MISO (Midwest)December 2022 cold (Winter Storm Elliott)peak 9.4/9.1 · −12,207 MW
  • Dec 25, 2022Texas (ERCOT)December 2022 cold (Winter Storm Elliott)peak 9.4/9.1 · −5,966 MW

Winter Storm Uri

  • Feb 17, 2021Southwest Power PoolWinter Storm Uripeak 11.0/9.1 · −4,494 MW
  • Feb 15, 2021MISO (Midwest)Winter Storm Uripeak 11.0/9.1 · +4,096 MW
  • Feb 12, 2021United States (Lower 48)Winter Storm Uripeak 10.4/9.1 · +25,127 MW
  • Feb 10, 2021Texas (ERCOT)Winter Storm Uripeak 11.5/9.1 · +6,088 MW

Full ledger

All 107 pages, newest first. Absence of a page is “no regime change detected” — never a certificate that nothing happened.

  • Jul 6, 2026United States (Lower 48)peak 10.6/9.1 · +51,744 MW
  • Jul 3, 2026Southern Company (Southeast)Late-June 2026 heat wavepeak 9.4/9.1 · −6,896 MW
  • Jun 12, 2026United States (Lower 48)peak 11.3/9.1 · +44,138 MW
  • Jun 9, 2026Texas (ERCOT)peak 9.2/9.1 · +3,405 MW
  • Mar 4, 2026Southern Company (Southeast)peak 9.7/9.1 · +495 MW
  • Feb 25, 2026Southern Company (Southeast)peak 9.4/9.1 · +354 MW
  • Feb 11, 2026Duke Energy (Carolinas)peak 11.1/9.1 · +10,033 MW
  • Feb 1, 2026Southern Company (Southeast)January–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)peak 10.3/9.1 · −4,248 MW
  • Jan 30, 2026Southern Company (Southeast)January–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)peak 9.2/9.1 · −3,396 MW
  • Jan 27, 2026Texas (ERCOT)January–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)peak 9.9/9.1 · −9,995 MW
  • Jan 26, 2026Tennessee Valley AuthorityJanuary–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)peak 9.3/9.1 · −2,837 MW
  • Jan 26, 2026Southwest Power PoolJanuary–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)peak 10.2/9.1 · −11,290 MW
  • Jan 26, 2026Southwest Power PoolJanuary–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)peak 10.5/9.1 · −11,143 MW
  • Jan 26, 2026Tennessee Valley AuthorityJanuary–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)peak 10.1/9.1 · −4,468 MW
  • Jan 25, 2026Duke Energy (Carolinas)January–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)peak 10.1/9.1 · +4,492 MW
  • Jan 24, 2026Duke Energy (Carolinas)January–February 2026 cold wave (Winter Storm Fern)peak 11.5/9.1 · +5,188 MW
  • Jan 18, 2026Southern Company (Southeast)peak 9.2/9.1 · −2,946 MW
  • Jan 10, 2026Public Service Colorado (Xcel)peak 9.5/9.1 · +1,158 MW
  • Jan 10, 2026Public Service Colorado (Xcel)peak 10.5/9.1 · +1,233 MW
  • Jan 5, 2026Bonneville Power (Northwest)peak 11.0/9.1 · +371 MW
  • Jan 5, 2026Los Angeles (LADWP)peak 9.3/9.1 · −2,540 MW
  • Jan 3, 2026Los Angeles (LADWP)peak 11.9/9.1 · −2,306 MW
  • Jan 2, 2026Los Angeles (LADWP)peak 13.4/9.1 · −2,250 MW
  • Jan 1, 2026PacifiCorp East (Utah/Wyoming)peak 10.2/9.1 · +6,442 MW
  • Jan 1, 2026Bonneville Power (Northwest)peak 10.4/9.1 · +428 MW
  • Dec 18, 2025MISO (Midwest)peak 10.1/9.1 · −5,158 MW
  • Dec 18, 2025MISO (Midwest)peak 10.6/9.1 · −4,458 MW
  • Dec 11, 2025Southern Company (Southeast)peak 9.7/9.1 · −4,849 MW
  • Dec 2, 2025Southwest Power Poolpeak 9.5/9.1 · −8,369 MW
  • Sep 13, 2025Southern Company (Southeast)peak 9.6/9.1 · −2,736 MW
  • Aug 11, 2025PacifiCorp East (Utah/Wyoming)peak 9.4/9.1 · −915 MW
  • Aug 5, 2025New York (NYISO)peak 9.3/9.1 · −1,681 MW
  • Jul 19, 2025PacifiCorp East (Utah/Wyoming)peak 9.2/9.1 · −1,280 MW
  • Jul 7, 2025PacifiCorp East (Utah/Wyoming)peak 10.5/9.1 · −689 MW
  • Jun 25, 2025New York (NYISO)peak 9.7/9.1 · +1,984 MW
  • Jun 22, 2025New York (NYISO)peak 17.0/9.1 · −1,829 MW
  • Jun 18, 2025Southwest Power Poolpeak 9.3/9.1 · −11,130 MW
  • Jun 11, 2025PacifiCorp East (Utah/Wyoming)peak 9.2/9.1 · −667 MW
  • Feb 25, 2025MISO (Midwest)peak 11.1/9.1 · −4,372 MW
  • Feb 22, 2025Texas (ERCOT)peak 9.3/9.1 · −4,456 MW
  • Feb 21, 2025Tennessee Valley Authoritypeak 10.1/9.1 · −2,387 MW
  • Feb 20, 2025Southern Company (Southeast)peak 11.6/9.1 · −4,266 MW
  • Feb 20, 2025Texas (ERCOT)peak 10.0/9.1 · −3,538 MW
  • Feb 7, 2025Arizona Public Servicepeak 9.3/9.1 · +887 MW
  • Jan 31, 2025Southern Company (Southeast)peak 9.2/9.1 · −2,113 MW
  • Jan 23, 2025MISO (Midwest)January 2025 cold wavepeak 9.7/9.1 · −4,490 MW
  • Jan 22, 2025Los Angeles (LADWP)January 2025 cold wavepeak 9.4/9.1 · −1,407 MW
  • Jan 21, 2025Texas (ERCOT)January 2025 cold wavepeak 10.6/9.1 · −7,285 MW
  • Jan 21, 2025MISO (Midwest)January 2025 cold wavepeak 9.5/9.1 · +4,961 MW
  • Jan 10, 2025Tennessee Valley Authoritypeak 13.3/9.1 · −2,055 MW
  • Jan 6, 2025Texas (ERCOT)peak 9.2/9.1 · +3,577 MW
  • Jan 3, 2025New York (NYISO)peak 9.2/9.1 · +1,606 MW
  • Dec 22, 2024New York (NYISO)peak 12.2/9.1 · +1,473 MW
  • Dec 21, 2024Texas (ERCOT)peak 10.0/9.1 · −3,710 MW
  • Dec 9, 2024Southwest Power Poolpeak 9.4/9.1 · +1,511 MW
  • Nov 29, 2024Southwest Power Poolpeak 9.2/9.1 · −1,552 MW
  • Jul 14, 2024PacifiCorp East (Utah/Wyoming)peak 9.1/9.1 · −938 MW
  • Jul 9, 2024Texas (ERCOT)peak 10.8/9.1 · −9,589 MW
  • Jul 8, 2024PacifiCorp East (Utah/Wyoming)peak 11.0/9.1 · −889 MW
  • Jun 29, 2024New York (NYISO)peak 9.6/9.1 · +19,639 MW
  • Jun 27, 2024Los Angeles (LADWP)peak 9.7/9.1 · −3,072 MW
  • Jun 22, 2024New York (NYISO)peak 10.0/9.1 · +1,276 MW
  • Jun 18, 2024Texas (ERCOT)peak 9.8/9.1 · +5,929 MW
  • Mar 12, 2024Florida Power & Lightpeak 9.2/9.1 · +1,073 MW
  • Mar 3, 2024Southwest Power Poolpeak 10.3/9.1 · +3,326 MW
  • Feb 17, 2024Southwest Power Poolpeak 10.5/9.1 · +3,114 MW
  • Feb 15, 2024Southwest Power Poolpeak 9.2/9.1 · +3,381 MW
  • Jan 21, 2024New York (NYISO)peak 10.7/9.1 · +1,249 MW
  • Jan 20, 2024PacifiCorp East (Utah/Wyoming)peak 11.4/9.1 · −610 MW
  • Jan 17, 2024PacifiCorp East (Utah/Wyoming)January 2024 Arctic outbreakpeak 9.6/9.1 · −800 MW
  • Jan 14, 2024United States (Lower 48)January 2024 Arctic outbreakpeak 10.3/9.1 · +21,962 MW
  • Jan 14, 2024Southwest Power PoolJanuary 2024 Arctic outbreakpeak 10.1/9.1 · +5,361 MW
  • Jan 13, 2024Southwest Power PoolJanuary 2024 Arctic outbreakpeak 15.2/9.1 · +2,693 MW
  • Jan 10, 2024Bonneville Power (Northwest)peak 9.4/9.1 · +596 MW
  • Jan 7, 2024Southwest Power Poolpeak 10.4/9.1 · +1,431 MW
  • Jan 2, 2024Texas (ERCOT)peak 9.6/9.1 · +6,558 MW
  • Dec 24, 2023Texas (ERCOT)peak 10.6/9.1 · +5,028 MW
  • Dec 22, 2023MISO (Midwest)peak 12.2/9.1 · −4,493 MW
  • Jun 30, 2023MISO (Midwest)peak 9.5/9.1 · −8,227 MW
  • Jun 5, 2023MISO (Midwest)peak 10.2/9.1 · −6,409 MW
  • Feb 4, 2023Texas (ERCOT)peak 10.3/9.1 · −6,869 MW
  • Dec 26, 2022MISO (Midwest)December 2022 cold (Winter Storm Elliott)peak 9.4/9.1 · −12,207 MW
  • Dec 25, 2022Texas (ERCOT)December 2022 cold (Winter Storm Elliott)peak 9.4/9.1 · −5,966 MW
  • Aug 30, 2022Southwest Power Poolpeak 9.2/9.1 · −4,060 MW
  • Aug 16, 2022Southwest Power Poolpeak 9.5/9.1 · −4,113 MW
  • Jul 6, 2022Southwest Power Poolpeak 10.8/9.1 · −2,828 MW
  • Feb 8, 2022Southwest Power Poolpeak 9.2/9.1 · −2,892 MW
  • Jan 11, 2022Southwest Power Poolpeak 9.8/9.1 · −2,546 MW
  • Jan 4, 2022New York (NYISO)peak 9.9/9.1 · +1,214 MW
  • Dec 26, 2021Southwest Power Poolpeak 9.2/9.1 · −3,170 MW
  • Dec 2, 2021MISO (Midwest)peak 9.2/9.1 · −4,866 MW
  • Aug 25, 2021Southwest Power Poolpeak 9.3/9.1 · −20,881 MW
  • Jul 5, 2021Southwest Power Poolpeak 9.5/9.1 · −4,272 MW
  • Jul 4, 2021MISO (Midwest)peak 11.5/9.1 · +5,059 MW
  • Jun 28, 2021New York (NYISO)peak 11.0/9.1 · +1,289 MW
  • Jun 21, 2021MISO (Midwest)peak 9.4/9.1 · −6,791 MW
  • Jun 6, 2021New York (NYISO)peak 10.7/9.1 · +1,493 MW
  • May 26, 2021Texas (ERCOT)peak 10.0/9.1 · +4,038 MW
  • May 25, 2021Texas (ERCOT)peak 9.2/9.1 · +3,245 MW
  • May 24, 2021New York (NYISO)peak 9.1/9.1 · +1,308 MW
  • May 22, 2021Texas (ERCOT)peak 9.2/9.1 · +3,768 MW
  • Feb 17, 2021Southwest Power PoolWinter Storm Uripeak 11.0/9.1 · −4,494 MW
  • Feb 15, 2021MISO (Midwest)Winter Storm Uripeak 11.0/9.1 · +4,096 MW
  • Feb 12, 2021United States (Lower 48)Winter Storm Uripeak 10.4/9.1 · +25,127 MW
  • Feb 10, 2021Texas (ERCOT)Winter Storm Uripeak 11.5/9.1 · +6,088 MW
  • Jan 19, 2021Southwest Power Poolpeak 10.5/9.1 · −2,754 MW
  • Jan 14, 2021MISO (Midwest)peak 9.8/9.1 · −4,226 MW

How detections work — and exactly what we do and don’t claim — is on the methodology page. Subscribe via RSS.