MISO (Midwest) — no forecast-error regime change detected
The day-ahead forecast's error has stayed within its calibrated band. Not a certificate that nothing happened.
quiet streak 7 monthsbudget ≈1 false page per BA-yearwatching since Jan 2021
2.68%
mean abs. forecast error
of demand (MAPE)
74,173 MW
mean demand
1,738 MW
typical error
median |error|
7,007 MW
worst-hour error
99th pctile |error|
The evidence, last two weeks
Because the baseline is the operator’s own forecast, seasonality is subtracted for free — what’s left is the miss. The detector pages only when that miss enters a new regime and clears the page line.
Real EIA-930 data for MISO (Midwest) — the last 336 hourly points. The forecast is the grid operator’s own day-ahead demand forecast (not ours); the error is actual − forecast, peaking at +10,424 MW in this window. The evidence statistic stayed under the page line: no regime change detected. That is not proof nothing happened. Back-in-band is a display heuristic, not a certificate of absence.
Forecast-error regime changes14 in the monitored history
Each is a dated page inside the stated budget. Labels attach only where a window overlaps a documented grid-stress event — never invented. We detect that the forecast’s error changed regime, not that the grid failed or why.
EndedDec 18, 2025 → Dec 19, 2025
peak evidence
10.11
forecast miss at onset
−5,158 MW
load at onset
24th pctile of this grid
back in-band
Dec 19, 2025
EndedDec 18, 2025 → Dec 19, 2025
peak evidence
10.61
forecast miss at onset
−4,458 MW
load at onset
35th pctile of this grid
back in-band
Dec 19, 2025
EndedFeb 25, 2025 → Feb 27, 2025
peak evidence
11.11
forecast miss at onset
−4,372 MW
load at onset
53th pctile of this grid
back in-band
Feb 27, 2025
EndedJan 23, 2025 → Jan 24, 2025January 2025 cold wave
peak evidence
9.66
forecast miss at onset
−4,490 MW
load at onset
85th pctile of this grid
back in-band
Jan 24, 2025
EndedJan 21, 2025 → Jan 22, 2025January 2025 cold wave
The hourly error runs through a conformal band that learns MISO (Midwest)’s own normal forecast-error rate, into a Shiryaev–Roberts e-detector on a bounded rolling window. An alarm fires only when accumulated evidence crosses the page line — and because the statistic is anytime-valid, checking as often as you like never inflates the false-alarm rate. Full recipe, and exactly what we do not claim, on the methodology page.
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A live status pill for MISO (Midwest), refreshed every publish. Drop it in a README, status page, or dashboard — it always shows the current verdict and links back here. It reads no regime change while the forecast holds, and flips to forecast drift detected when the e-detector pages.
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